Uncertainty Management

All of management’s value is derived from managing uncertainty.

Uncertainty management is a combination of two things; a two-sided coin. One side of the coin is performance management, the other, risk management. Two different perspectives on the same thing. Overall, it simply describes what management should be doing.

After all, if a business has certainty and clarity in all things, then there is nothing to manage. As practitioners we know this utopia only exists in the academic world of strategy and operations theory.

Analytica develop applied solutions enabling a business to manage uncertainty around performance and risk in an integrated manner. Our solutions are constructed using an understanding of how uncertainty works - that we do not observe probability distributions when it comes to data we fear has a large amount of variance, only random draws from an unspecified generator. Through this understanding we help clients establish what knowledge is absent in relation to their specific problem, and develop transactional and other approches that will control and mitigate the offending uncertainties.

To successfully deal with the fact that improbable does NOT equal impossible, our approach to solutions is applied, practice-based and dogma free. This agnosticism results in the use of tools ranging from qualitative efforts in decision and assumption analysis through to sophisticated quant work using Monte Carlo methods and statistical packages. A brief, non-exhaustive list of what we offer in uncertainty management is available here, and despite our agnosticism, you can rest assured we still believe in rules. Analytica works to a particular manifesto in relation to any and all modelling work we undertake. You can find it here.


Contact us for an exploratory discussion.